I'm interested in hearing others thoughts on his predictions. Personally, I believe he's right on the mark. And if he is correct what does that mean for our profession?
A few of my thoughts can be found here on my blog.
Feel free to post either place. I look forward to hearing your thoughts.
This article is strikingly similar to the book Disrupting Class by Clayton M. Christensen. I just picked up a copy from the library last week. The key phrase that I am beginning to hear in several places is "disruptive innovation." This is the phrase that Frey uses in his introduction and is the thesis of Christensen in Disrupting Class.
The key idea behind disruptive innovation is that it starts with a small band of non-conformers. The acceptance of the disruptive innovation (such as new digital technologies) occurs exponentially. Because only a small group embraces the innovation initially, growth starts slowly, but as it gains speed it rapidly becomes more and more accepted until it displaces the status quo and dominates the market. This is what is occurring in education today, specifically with the introduction of on-line learning.
I'll be interested in reading Frey's article more closely and comparing it to Christensen's book. Thanks for passing this along to the ed. community!
Permalink Reply by Kev on January 24, 2009 at 5:57pm
I don't buy that the changes will happen within 5 years (I don't see them in 20 frankly given the slow plodding beast that is education) but I definitely agree with:
<<Transition from Consumers to Producers>>
Assuming copyright law allows it this will be the biggest change to society in general and definitely education. However, given current copyright limits this won't get far. I'm excited to see the current generation grow up and become the adults. They get fair use, today's adults don't.
I would argue that the change will be very rapid in some areas (such as home schooling, private and charter schools) and very slow in others (public schools). Public education will not adopt sweeping changes such as those predicted by Frey until they are forced to do so.
There are 2 types of innovation recognized in the business community; Evolutionary and Revolutionary. Big, leaping, changes are Revolutionary. These are the types of changes that alter an entire method or way of doing something. i.e. The iPod is a revolutionary innovation. The former type is Evolutionary innovation. These are developments that stem from the natural progression of a product, or way of doing something. i.e. the handheld mixer in the kitchen was an "evolutionary" innovation.
Education is chalk full of minor evolutionary innovations, like the white dry erase board as opposed to the chalkboard. Likewise, much of the software innovations have been evolutionary. I would even place Blackboard into an evolutionary innovation, because it was the "next" generation of storing and handling, managing, a schools information (i.e. Zangle). But, Eduction has yet to experience a true revolutionary change as to how it handles it's main product of the disemination of knowledge. I think that is the sum of what the article posted by Stu was stating, but I was observing this from a business perspective.
The iPod is not revolutionary... it is at best evolutionary. In my opinion it just happened to be the name that stuck to technologies that were already existing, but that had not been embraced with a common name before. The iPod is to media files (movies/music) what Bandaid is to bandages.
In the business world, things are considered "revolutionary" when they change an industry. The iPod is regarded in business as revolutionary (along with Napster) because they altered the consumption of music... it "revolutionized" an industry.
Now, to some extent all advancements are evolutionary in that they all are an outgrowth of other conditions, and in that point you are very correct. But, in education, what might change the "consumption" of education... i.e. What would be something that would revolutionize the industry? While these innovations would be an evolution of earlier things, they are revolutionary if they alter the way the very industry functions.
By your definition then the iPod is not the 'thing' that was revolutionary then. The MP3 and iTunes store were 'revolutionary' and the iPod was just the device. There were MP3 players before the iPod (and some made today are far better than iPods), but the true change was not the physical hardware, but the software and delivery mechanism.
The potential to listen or watch educational content on portable players has existed since the 1980s so I would not call the player the revolutionary part of the equation even in the arena of education.
I thought the same thing as I read Frey's article. I believe that Disrupting Class is right on the mark. I can see the application of technology to a student-centric environment changing very rapidly in my own district. I do agree with the short time frame for changes. Look at how many states are either sponsoring virtual schools or are investigating the use of them. This is true for school districts as well. Once good virtual courses become available, why would I not want to take advantage of them if I'm a student? Why would I want to sit in a semester or year-long course when I could finish the course faster? And for kids who need more time to work, why fail when I could succeed?
Education as we know will not be viable under these changing conditions. Teachers most certainly are going to be necessary, but the role will be changing. We have to support teachers through this change, universities will have to provide different ways of earning certificates, and I know there may be some who will either struggle to adapt, or may not be able to adapt. When I think of what's coming, I like to think about Bob Dylan's "The Times They Are a-Changing" and hope I'm still able to help and that I can recognize when it's time for me to get out of the way. It will be exciting and scary all at the same time. Bring it on.
CR 2.0 "hosts" are here to help with any questions you might have about the network. Please feel free to contact them directly from their linked profile pages:
To volunteer to be a CR 2.0 host/greeter, or if you have comments, please refer here.
Finding Interesting Discussions:
Forum posts can be organized by the use of "tags." To see discussions on specific topics, click on the links below.
Standardized tags you can use to have your posts included in the link results are shown in parentheses. You can also help by adding tags to others' posts. (To participate in the discussion on standardized tagging here at Classroom 2.0, see this page.)
By Tool:
Click on flag to open new window in your language. For different language close window and repeat. Signing in reverts site to English. Code at Translated.